BloombergNEF just raised its U.S. data-center power forecast by 83% — to 194 GW by 2035 — meaning one out of every five units of electricity generated in the country would flow to a data center. With hyperscalers on track to spend $700 billion this year and 124 GW of on-site gas plants in the pipeline, the energy system your community depends on is being reshaped in real time.
On July 21, BloombergNEF released an updated forecast that should stop every utility commissioner, planning-board member, and ratepayer advocate in their tracks: U.S. data centers are now projected to reach 194 gigawatts of power demand by 2035 — an 83% increase from BNEF's own December 2025 estimate of 106 GW.
To put that in perspective: 194 GW is roughly the output of 194 traditional nuclear reactors. BNEF analyst Lloyd Arnold framed it bluntly: "Every coal plant, every gas plant, every solar farm in the US — one unit of energy out of five generated by them is going to data centers."
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected U.S. data-center capacity, 2035 | 194 GW |
| Share of U.S. electricity consumption, 2035 | \~20% (up from 5.9% today) |
| Share of U.S. electricity consumption, 2030 | \~12% |
| Hyperscaler capex this year (Moody's) | \~$700 billion |
| Announced on-site gas generation | 124 GW |
| Annual record for grid-connected DC capacity | 7.1 GW in a single year |
This isn't an outlier projection. Every major forecaster has revised upward in the same direction: EPRI more than doubled its 2024 estimate; S&P increased its forecast by more than a third between October and April. The trend line only bends one way.
The national average masks extreme regional concentration. According to TechCrunch's analysis of the BNEF data:
These are the two grids that already serve the largest concentration of data centers in the country. Virginia's "Data Center Alley" and the Texas permitting pipeline are not hypothetical — they are existing load on grids where capacity constraints are already driving up prices.
How much? PJM electricity prices rose 76% over the past year, and data centers represented 38% of charges in PJM's most recent capacity auction. That cost flows directly to every residential and commercial ratepayer on the system.
Unable to wait in grid interconnection queues that stretch five years or longer, developers are building their own power plants. BNEF now tracks 124 GW of announced on-site gas generation capacity — nearly two-thirds of the total 2035 data-center forecast.
The model is straightforward: install gas turbines or reciprocating engines on the data center campus, bypass the grid entirely, and begin operations years before a transmission interconnection would be approved. Only one fully off-grid facility is currently operational — SpaceX's Colossus 2 in Memphis — but the pipeline is enormous.
For communities, on-site gas generation raises a distinct set of questions:
Mark Daly, BNEF's head of technology and innovation, acknowledged the execution risk: the majority of new projects involve first-time developers who lack experience in financing, land acquisition, power procurement, and offtake agreements. Construction barriers include intense competition for labor and equipment, political opposition, and persistent interconnection delays.
The supply of capital is not in question. Moody's Ratings reports that the six largest U.S. hyperscalers — Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, and Apple — are on track to spend approximately $700 billion in capital expenditure this year, nearly six times 2022 levels. Over the next five years, cumulative spending is expected to exceed $3 trillion.
Roughly 75% of that capex — about $450 billion — is directly tied to AI infrastructure: GPUs, specialized chips, data centers, and supporting equipment.
This is the most capital-intensive industrial buildout since the interstate highway system. The difference is that highways were publicly planned and publicly funded. Data centers are privately financed but impose public costs — on grids, water systems, land markets, and municipal services.
Even with 124 GW of on-site gas in the pipeline, BNEF's base-case scenario projects a 19 GW shortfall by 2035 — demand that neither the grid nor behind-the-meter generation can serve in time. That gap is larger than the entire generating capacity of many U.S. states.
What fills it? The honest answer is: nobody knows yet. Nuclear (including SMRs) is pre-commercial at data-center scale. Utility-scale renewables face their own interconnection queues. Demand-side efficiency gains from more efficient AI chips are real but historically get consumed by increased usage (Jevons paradox).
The most likely near-term outcome is grid strain and price increases in the regions where data centers concentrate — which is why the PJM and ERCOT numbers above matter so much for ratepayers.
If you're in a state where data centers are being proposed or built, this forecast changes the negotiating landscape:
The "we'll be a small part of the grid" argument is dead. At 20% of national electricity and 34% in PJM, data centers are not marginal load. They are the dominant new demand source. Any developer who frames their facility as insignificant to the grid is contradicted by their own industry's forecasts.
On-site gas plants need separate scrutiny. A data center with its own gas turbines is an industrial power plant. It should face the same environmental review, air-quality permitting, and community notification as any other fossil-fuel generating facility. Don't let "behind the meter" mean "behind the curtain."
Rate-impact analysis is non-negotiable. With PJM capacity prices already reflecting data-center demand, every new large-load interconnection should trigger a ratepayer-impact study. If your utility or PUC isn't requiring one, ask why.
Binding commitments beat press releases. $700 billion in hyperscaler capex means enormous leverage for communities willing to negotiate. Use it. Demand community benefit agreements with annual reporting, rate-protection guarantees confirmed by utility testimony, water-use caps, decommissioning bonds, and local hiring commitments — before the vote, not after.
15 state legislatures have already considered temporary development bans. New York enacted the first statewide moratorium. The political window for negotiating strong community protections is open — but it won't stay open forever as developers lock in sites and break ground.
Model the local impact on the Learn & Simulate tab, check who's building near you on the 🏢 Data Centers tab, and build your CBA on the 🛡️ Negotiation Toolkit tab.