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233 GW of Demand Is Waiting in Line: Inside ERCOT's Data Center Queue

grid ERCOT Texas demand infrastructure

Texas's grid operator has 233 GW of large-load interconnection requests — roughly three times the state's current peak demand. Most of the queue is data centers. Here's what it means.

If you built every project currently sitting in ERCOT's large-load interconnection queue, you would need an electric grid three times the size of Texas's current one. That's not going to happen — but the queue tells a revealing story about where AI infrastructure investment is headed and what it's doing to the grid that serves 30 million Texans.

The numbers

As of ERCOT's March 2026 TAC report:

Metric Value
Total large-load requests 233 GW
Data-center share ~73% (~170 GW)
Requests with signed ISAs ~18 GW
Current ERCOT peak demand ~85 GW
Projected 2030 peak (ERCOT) ~115 GW

The queue is not a forecast — it's a wish list. Many projects will never break ground. Developers file early to secure their place in line, and attrition rates historically run 60–70%. But even if only a quarter materializes, that's a 50+ GW addition on a grid that struggled to keep the lights on during Winter Storm Uri.

Why Texas?

Three factors make Texas the epicenter of the data-center land rush:

  1. Deregulated market. ERCOT is the only major US grid that isn't federally regulated by FERC, which means faster interconnection timelines and fewer transmission cost-allocation disputes.

  2. Cheap land and power. West Texas wind and solar have pushed wholesale energy prices to some of the lowest in the nation — sometimes negative during sunny, windy afternoons. Developers can contract for renewable PPAs at $20–25/MWh.

  3. No state income tax. Combined with local Chapter 313 (now Chapter 403) property-tax abatements, the effective tax burden on a billion-dollar campus can be remarkably low.

The community tension

For small towns along the I-35 corridor and in the Permian Basin, the pitch is jobs and tax revenue. But the reality is more complicated:

Local water districts in Abilene and Midland have begun demanding long-term water-supply agreements before signing off on projects, a trend likely to spread.

What to watch

ERCOT's Board of Directors is considering a queue-management reform that would require refundable deposits and milestone deadlines to clear speculative filings. The April 2026 presentation to the Texas Senate Business & Commerce Committee signaled that legislators are paying attention.

Use the Data Centers tab to see the live ERCOT large-load queue data and the Officials tab to contact your Texas state legislators directly.

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