233 GW of Demand Is Waiting in Line: Inside ERCOT's Data Center Queue
Texas's grid operator has 233 GW of large-load interconnection requests — roughly three times the state's current peak demand. Most of the queue is data centers. Here's what it means.
If you built every project currently sitting in ERCOT's large-load interconnection queue, you would need an electric grid three times the size of Texas's current one. That's not going to happen — but the queue tells a revealing story about where AI infrastructure investment is headed and what it's doing to the grid that serves 30 million Texans.
The numbers
As of ERCOT's March 2026 TAC report:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total large-load requests | 233 GW |
| Data-center share | ~73% (~170 GW) |
| Requests with signed ISAs | ~18 GW |
| Current ERCOT peak demand | ~85 GW |
| Projected 2030 peak (ERCOT) | ~115 GW |
The queue is not a forecast — it's a wish list. Many projects will never break ground. Developers file early to secure their place in line, and attrition rates historically run 60–70%. But even if only a quarter materializes, that's a 50+ GW addition on a grid that struggled to keep the lights on during Winter Storm Uri.
Why Texas?
Three factors make Texas the epicenter of the data-center land rush:
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Deregulated market. ERCOT is the only major US grid that isn't federally regulated by FERC, which means faster interconnection timelines and fewer transmission cost-allocation disputes.
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Cheap land and power. West Texas wind and solar have pushed wholesale energy prices to some of the lowest in the nation — sometimes negative during sunny, windy afternoons. Developers can contract for renewable PPAs at $20–25/MWh.
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No state income tax. Combined with local Chapter 313 (now Chapter 403) property-tax abatements, the effective tax burden on a billion-dollar campus can be remarkably low.
The community tension
For small towns along the I-35 corridor and in the Permian Basin, the pitch is jobs and tax revenue. But the reality is more complicated:
- A 200 MW data center employs 50–150 people once built. Construction crews are larger but temporary.
- Property-tax abatements often run 10–20 years, meaning the school district and county see limited revenue during the period of highest community impact.
- Water rights in West Texas are governed by the rule of capture — first come, first served — and data centers are arriving with deep pockets and drilling rigs.
Local water districts in Abilene and Midland have begun demanding long-term water-supply agreements before signing off on projects, a trend likely to spread.
What to watch
ERCOT's Board of Directors is considering a queue-management reform that would require refundable deposits and milestone deadlines to clear speculative filings. The April 2026 presentation to the Texas Senate Business & Commerce Committee signaled that legislators are paying attention.
Use the Data Centers tab to see the live ERCOT large-load queue data and the Officials tab to contact your Texas state legislators directly.